$3.8B Mt. Gox Bitcoin Could Trigger Massive Devastating Crash

Key Points

• $3.8B Mt. Gox Bitcoin Could Trigger Massive Devastating Crash
• Mt. Gox moves wallets after 7 months, sparking selloff fears
• 34,000 BTC ($3.8B) due for repayment by Oct 31, 2025
• Analysts warn low liquidity could worsen market impact
• Speculation grows amid fragile sentiment and FUD

Mt. Gox’s $3.8B Bitcoin repayment deadline nears, triggering fresh fears of market selloff as wallets move and analysts warn of low liquidity and FUD.

After seven months of silence, the infamous Mt. Gox wallets are moving again, just weeks before the long-awaited repayment deadline. The timing? October 31, 2025. The amount? A staggering 34,000 Bitcoin, worth over $3.8 billion at today’s prices.

Bitcoin Held By Mt. Gox. Source: Arkham Intelligence – Techtokens

Blockchain watchers were quick to notice wallet activity linked to Mt. Gox. Historically, such movements signal internal testing or preparations for transfers. But with the official court-approved repayment window closing in, the crypto market is jittery.

This isn’t just another crypto headline. It could be one of the largest Bitcoin movements in recent history, and it’s stirring a wave of FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).

🚨 JUST IN: Mt. Gox Repayments Deadline Extended to October 2025.

$4B payment selling pressure now shifted to 2025 🚀📈

— DJBubblegum (@bubblegum_dee) October 10, 2024

Mt. Gox, the collapsed exchange that once handled over 70% of Bitcoin trades, has been tied up in legal knots for over a decade. Since July 2024, repayments have started, but not all creditors were ready. That led to a final extension—one that ends in just two weeks.

According to analysts, if no further extension is granted, these 34,000 BTC might soon flood the market. And given today’s thin liquidity, that could trigger some real chaos.

“These Bitcoins will eventually enter the market. That alone is enough to spark fear,” warns CryptoQuant’s Mignolet.

This tension follows other major stories that shook investor trust, like the recent crypto fraud and $15B seizure, which highlighted just how fragile sentiment can be in today’s landscape.

“MT.GOX는 아직 약 3만 4천개의 비트코인을 상환하지 않았습니다. 그리고 Strive(ASST)”

MT.GOX는 2024년 7월 약 10년 만에 비트코인, 비트코인 캐시 상환 절차를 시작했습니다.

하지만, 아직 약 3만 4천개의 비트코인이 남아 있습니다.

당초 2024년 10월 31일까지 채권자 상환을 완료해야 했지만,… https://t.co/Z0eyufAJz3 pic.twitter.com/slhgNHVjfc

— mignolet (@mignoletkr) October 16, 2025

Why Liquidity and Timing Could Make This Worse

It’s not just the size of the potential dump, it’s the timing and market conditions that have experts worried.

Last year, the market saw similar large sales (like the German government’s Bitcoin liquidations). But back then, institutional over-the-counter (OTC) desks like Coinbase Prime were active enough to absorb much of the impact.

That might not be the case this time.

“Unlike last year, OTC volume is weakening,” Mignolet noted.

OTC desks act like shock absorbers, letting big trades happen quietly without shaking the market. But with low institutional appetite and rising macroeconomic uncertainty, those buffers may not be enough.

In fact, major players like Coinbase and CoinDCX have recently shifted their focus to long-term investments in infrastructure, possibly signaling less readiness to act quickly in fast-changing liquidity events like this one.

If the Mt. Gox Bitcoins don’t get absorbed OTC, they could hit public exchanges, driving up volatility and dragging down prices fast.

And there’s another twist.

Some hoped firms like Strive (ASST), which earlier this year followed MicroStrategy’s example by buying Bitcoin for its treasury, would step in. But it looks like that safety net isn’t big enough either.

Strive bought 5,800 BTC at $116K each using a $750M PIPE offering. To absorb Mt. Gox’s $3.8B supply, it would need over $4B more. And in today’s investor climate, that’s a long shot.

“Strive is out of ammo,” said Mignolet. “The market may be on its own this time.”

With broader macro uncertainty, institutional demand is drying up. Just look at how Binance token demand has weakened in recent months, or how projects on BNB Chain are struggling to attract consistent funding.

Even initiatives with clear access to capital, like the unused $39M BNB cancer fund, remain frozen, showing that capital deployment is cautious across the board.

Testing or Trouble? Wallet Movements Raise Eyebrows

What’s making things even more tense is the type of wallet activity being seen.

Analysts have flagged that the recent Mt. Gox wallet moves mirror earlier “test” transactions, something the trustee has done before previous repayment phases.

그리고

7개월 만에 마운트곡스(Mt. Gox) 지갑에서 움직임이 포착되었습니다.

과거 마운트곡스는 상환 직전, 트랜잭션 테스트를 위해 소규모 비트코인 이동을 진행한 적이 있습니다.(빨간색 박스)
그리고 이번에도 유사한 움직임이 나타나고 있습니다.(1번 사진)

물론 이번에도 그 패턴이 반복될지,… pic.twitter.com/Hxhv08MZeG

— mignolet (@mignoletkr) October 16, 2025

These are typically small-scale Bitcoin movements, likely to check systems before sending the real thing.

“It’s déjà vu,” Mignolet posted on X. “Same kind of transactions we saw before July repayments.”

So, is a massive selloff imminent? Not necessarily.

Mt. Gox Moves BTC After Seven Months. Source: Arkham – Techtokens

But with so much Bitcoin hanging in the balance and sentiment already on edge, even the possibility of a dump is enough to trigger fear.

The crypto market isn’t just watching Mt. Gox, it’s holding its breath.