Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket in $500M NFL Trading Surge

Key Points

• Kalshi grabs 60% of the prediction market in 2025
• Weekly trading volume crosses $500M during NFL season
• Regulated status gives Kalshi a mainstream advantage
• Rivalry mimics Coinbase vs Binance for prediction markets

Kalshi overtakes Polymarket in dramatic fashion, moving from just 5% market share at the start of 2025 to a commanding 60% by September.

What changed? The kickoff of the NFL season unleashed a wave of activity in the prediction markets, with Kalshi leading the charge.

Data from Dune Analytics shows weekly trading volumes on Kalshi exploded past $500 million, a number typically seen only during U.S. presidential election cycles. By mid-September, total trading on Kalshi hit $1.3 billion, eclipsing Polymarket’s $773 million.

Weekly Prediction Market Volume. Kalshi vs Polymarket. Source: Dune Analytics – Techtoken

This sudden growth has made the phrase Kalshi overtakes Polymarket one of the defining headlines of 2025’s crypto prediction market narrative. Sports betting, particularly football-related markets, has emerged as the biggest catalyst.

Kalshi’s partnership with Robinhood earlier this year made it easier for retail users to participate in prediction markets through a familiar, user-friendly platform.

And it’s working. From pro football to college games, Kalshi is now the go-to platform for U.S. users wanting to bet on real-world events.

“Kalshi has done $441 million of volume since the NFL kickoff. NFL week 1 is equal to a US election. Probably nothing,”, Tarek Mansour, Kalshi CEO, via X (Twitter)

Kalshi has done $441m of volume since NFL kickoff.

NFL week 1 is equal to a US election.

Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/l08dshJ2eN

— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) September 8, 2025

For investors tracking macro events like the recent $258M whale move after the Fed rate cut, the overlap between finance and predictions is becoming hard to ignore. Platforms like Kalshi are tapping into this growing intersection of sentiment, speculation, and statistics.

A Crypto Showdown: Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket in US Turf Battle

The battle where Kalshi overtakes Polymarket isn’t just about numbers, it’s about strategies. Kalshi is betting on regulation and ease of access. Polymarket, in contrast, leans into its decentralized, crypto-native roots.

Analysts have started referring to this rivalry as “Coinbase vs Binance, but for prediction markets.” Kalshi acts like Coinbase, compliant, regulated, and retail-friendly. Meanwhile, Polymarket mirrors Binance, global, fast-moving, and crypto-first.

Polymarket = Binance
Kalshi = Coinbase

Both are trying to catch up to each other

– Polymarket is trying to go live in the US soon and offer a regulated, KYC-enabled layer

– Kalshi is trying to go on-chain and enable permissionless access to non-US customers

Both are trying… pic.twitter.com/QJdoVJtEgP

— Yoshi (@tradefoxintern) September 17, 2025

Kalshi’s advantage is clear in the U.S. It’s regulated by the CFTC, allowing it to operate legally and with confidence. That’s why it’s been able to secure major partnerships with Solana, Base, and even launch a new developer ecosystem hub in September.

The hub aims to bring new creators and products into the prediction market space, expanding beyond sports into entertainment, esports, and finance.

There’s also rising crossover with traditional finance products. For instance, as Bitcoin finds a role in mortgages and digital assets increasingly intersect with mainstream finance, Kalshi is well-positioned to offer prediction markets tied to these evolving sectors.

Introducing @KalshiEco: a hub to support builders, traders, and creators pushing the frontier of prediction markets.

We’re backing offchain and onchain innovation, with dedicated grants partnering with @Solana and @Base.
Come join us in building the future of trading the future. pic.twitter.com/maeSBMhSmP

— Kalshi (@Kalshi) September 17, 2025

Polymarket isn’t sitting still, though. CEO Shayne Coplan confirmed that the platform has received CFTC approval to re-enter the U.S. market, a move that could challenge Kalshi’s current dominance.

Once it’s fully operational stateside, the Kalshi overtakes Polymarket narrative might face a sharp twist.

But for now, Kalshi is in the lead, setting the pace for what looks to be a breakout year for prediction markets.

Polymarket has been given the green light to go live in the USA by the @CFTC.

Credit to the Commission and Staff for their impressive work. This process has been accomplished in record timing.

Stay tuned https://t.co/NVziTixpqO

— Shayne Coplan 🦅 (@shayne_coplan) September 3, 2025

Prediction Markets Go Mainstream as Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket

Beyond just two platforms, the trend where Kalshi overtakes Polymarket reflects a bigger story: prediction markets are entering the financial mainstream.

Kalshi is no longer just about politics or sports. Backed by Paradigm, one of the top VC firms in the crypto space, Kalshi is evolving into a multi-vertical prediction exchange.

From guessing inflation numbers to speculating on tech product launches, Kalshi wants to be the “everything market” for real-world outcomes.

Meanwhile, the broader crypto space is seeing institutional shifts. The approval of products like the AVAX ETF from Bitwise and the upcoming Altcoins ETF decisions signal growing trust in tokenized markets.

These developments support platforms like Kalshi, which thrive on speculation around major financial events.

Additionally, the rise of tokenized assets such as Grayscale’s GDLC Fund points to a future where digital asset performance can become standard prediction categories. Kalshi could eventually integrate these as part of its long-term roadmap.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket are preparing for major funding rounds. Polymarket is reportedly targeting a $9–10 billion valuation, while Kalshi is expected to reach $5 billion in its next raise.

These numbers reflect investor confidence that prediction markets are no longer a niche, they’re becoming a core piece of the digital financial world.

As regulation catches up, and as retail adoption grows through platforms like Robinhood, the prediction market space could rival even traditional sportsbooks and financial exchanges.

With sports, politics, finance, and entertainment merging, and the rise of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, we’re seeing the birth of a new type of financial marketplace, one that lets anyone bet on anything.