JUP Drops 78% But Signs Point to a Strong Rebound

Key Points

• JUP drops 78% from all-time high, testing crucial $0.41 level
• Bullish crossover and RSI recovery suggest potential bounce
• Institutional interest grows with AJUP and BTC DeFi launch
• Recovery needs token burns, staking, and user confidence

The crypto market has taken another wild turn, and Jupiter (JUP) is right at the center of it. After reaching its all-time high earlier this year, JUP has dropped by a staggering 78%, falling to a key support zone around $0.41.

JUP price action. Source: Techtokens

This severe JUP drop has left many retail investors in shock. But while fear dominates headlines, there are growing signs that a recovery might be on the horizon.

Short-term price charts show JUP forming a temporary bottom near $0.41, a level that has seen strong buyer interest in the past. A slight price bounce is already visible.

JUP 4H chart. Source: X – Techtokens

Indicators like MACD hint at a bullish crossover, and the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, both common precursors to a trend reversal.

$JUP bouncing off $0.41 support. MAs at $0.44-$0.45 are crucial resistance. MACD hints at a bullish cross, RSI climbing from oversold. Bears still in control, but a break above $0.45 could target $0.48. Confidence 6/10 for short-term bounce. Manage risk! #JUP #Solana pic.twitter.com/9aQ3Jf56RU

— Ai4Alpha (@Ai4Alpha) October 1, 2025

That said, resistance remains firm between $0.44 and $0.45, and a breakout above that range is crucial to confirm any bullish momentum. If JUP can push through, the next target could be $0.48 in the short term.

But can the token truly recover after such a dramatic collapse? A lot depends on more than just technical indicators.

Lmfao. $JUP has an ETP officially now and the coin is still down only.@weremeow yall needa do some more buybacks and burns or something man. This is pitiful price action. I know yall are making a shit ton and should have a healthy warchest to paint a nice chart to give… https://t.co/CHKyhVxxro

— Zach (@CryptoZachLA) September 30, 2025

Why the JUP Drop Isn’t the Full Story

The current JUP drop paints a grim picture, but Jupiter’s fundamentals are telling a more optimistic story.

A major reason for optimism is the launch of JupNet, a new layer designed to enable cross-chain DeFi for Bitcoin.

Built with BitcoinKit, JupNet allows BTC capital to flow into DeFi protocols for lending, farming, and liquidity mining, without wrapping assets or relying on Ethereum-based bridges.

This is similar to how Coinbase is expanding into Bitcoin-backed loans to bridge traditional finance with crypto.

If successful, JupNet could position Jupiter as a gateway for native BTC in DeFi, a sector that has so far remained largely untapped.

In parallel, 21Shares, a top European investment firm, has introduced AJUP—a new product allowing institutional exposure to Jupiter. This is more than just a listing; it’s a signal of growing institutional trust in JUP as a viable asset.

The JUP drop has so far been retail-driven, so any fresh inflow from institutional players could stabilize the market.

However, price alone doesn’t drive recovery, community sentiment plays a major role.

Social media channels are buzzing with frustrated users calling for action. Popular suggestions include token burns, buybacks, or improved staking rewards to reduce circulating supply and rebuild trust.

“This is pitiful price action. You need to do some buybacks or burns… show the community something to believe in,” a user wrote on X.

These actions, if implemented correctly, could serve as a short-term cushion for the JUP drop and a long-term confidence booster.

Ecosystem Metrics Reveal Strong On-Chain Activity

Despite the price plunge, Jupiter continues to perform well on-chain, showing that user interest and network usage remain strong, even during this market downturn.

According to DefiLlama, Jupiter still ranks as one of the top four DEX Aggregators by daily volume. It has recorded over $1.24 billion in cumulative fees and $313 million in revenue to date.

Jupiter metrics. Source: DefiLlama – Techtokens

These metrics point to real usage, liquidity, and ecosystem health, which are often disconnected from short-term price action.

Moreover, Meteora’s allocation of 3% TGE to JUP stakers has added another layer of utility to the token. This incentive encourages long-term holding and staking, which can help reduce circulating supply and soften the blow of the JUP drop.

It’s also worth noting that Ethereum’s price prediction models are showing similar short-term volatility patterns, as seen in our latest Ethereum price prediction analysis. This suggests a broader trend of consolidation across DeFi assets.

Other tokens such as Cancer meme coin are also gaining speculative attention, but Jupiter stands out with its real use case and institutional backing. While meme tokens attract hype, JUP may offer more sustainable long-term growth.

What Needs to Happen for a Full JUP Recovery?

The JUP drop is one of the most dramatic altcoin falls in recent months, but the chances of recovery are very much alive. However, this recovery isn’t automatic. It will depend on how the Jupiter team responds to both technical and community challenges.

Here’s what needs to happen for a successful turnaround:

1. Clear Technical Breakout: A move above $0.45 with sustained volume would confirm a short-term bottom.

2. Execution of JupNet: The Bitcoin cross-chain DeFi network must work as intended and gain adoption.

3. Support From Institutions: AJUP by 21Shares could bring in traditional investors, but they need clear communication and trust.

4. Community-Driven Measures: Burn campaigns, buybacks, and higher staking incentives can help rebuild investor sentiment and slow down sell pressure.

Interestingly, high-profile figures like Justin Sun and his TRON holdings have shown how influential leadership and strategic moves can drive community trust and asset value, something the JUP team may need to emulate.

The current JUP drop reflects fear, uncertainty, and profit-taking. But the fundamentals haven’t vanished. With strong ecosystem data, institutional products rolling out, and bullish signals on charts, a comeback is possible, if handled correctly.

As crypto continues to evolve, it’s not just about price, projects backed by real adoption, like those in the growing crypto + AI sector, will likely emerge stronger from these volatile cycles.