By Key Points
- Bitcoin may reach a new all-time high as early as next week
- Standard Chartered sees $135K BTC driven by shutdown fears, ETF flows
- Perp whales are going long, pushing momentum higher
- But leveraged positions make the rally fragile and risky
A Bitcoin All-Time High could be just around the corner.
According to Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, Bitcoin (BTC) may print a new ATH next week, setting its sights on a $135,000 target.
The key driver? A combination of US government shutdown risks and massive ETF inflows that are accelerating institutional adoption.
In a statement to BeInCrypto, Kendrick noted that while previous shutdowns did little for Bitcoin, this time is different.
“Bitcoin now trades more in line with US fiscal risks,” he explained, citing the relationship between BTC and US treasury term premiums.
Market watchers on Polymarket currently estimate a 60% chance the US shutdown could last 10 to 29 days, enough time to create an extended period of uncertainty.
Kendrick believes this kind of political gridlock is bullish for Bitcoin, which has increasingly been seen as a hedge against government instability.
US Government Shutdown Timeline Probabilities. Source: Polymarket – Techtokens
To understand how macroeconomic pressure impacts crypto sentiment, take a look at the US credit downgrade and how it shook investor confidence earlier this year.
Then there’s the ETF angle.
Despite gold outperforming crypto ETFs recently, Kendrick forecasts a sharp reversal. Bitcoin ETF net inflows have already reached $58 billion, with $23 billion added in 2025 alone. He expects an additional $20 billion to flow into Bitcoin ETFs before the year ends.
That surge in liquidity is part of what fuels Kendrick’s long-held year-end price target of $200,000 for BTC.
And with Uptober, the historically bullish October, already in full swing, market sentiment is heating up.
These factors combined could lead to a new Bitcoin All-Time High, marking a significant milestone in crypto history.
Whale Activity Signals a Fragile But Powerful Breakout
Beyond macro triggers, on-chain data paints a similar bullish picture, with a few warnings.
CryptoQuant analysts have flagged an aggressive rise in perpetual futures buying activity, especially from large holders, aka perp whales. These whales are making heavy long bets on platforms like OKX, Bybit, and HTX.
Bitcoin perp whales went long heavily on OKX, Bybit, HTX. The taker buy ratio on okx is the highest since jan 2023. pic.twitter.com/C5kf81xi5j
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) September 27, 2025
“The taker buy ratio on OKX is the highest since January 2023,” said Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.
This surge in futures market action closely resembles trends seen before major Bitcoin options expiry events, which often trigger sudden volatility or price swings.
Another analyst, Maartunn, noted a $1.8 billion difference between buy and sell volume since the start of October. That’s a sign that buyers are overpowering sellers, and momentum is on the bulls’ side.
Futures buyers are stepping up 🧠
Since the monthly open, taker buy volume has exceeded sell volume by ~$1.8B.
A clear signs of aggressive long positioning. https://t.co/KApRGWrJK7 pic.twitter.com/uAQeH5qh54
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) October 3, 2025
However, there’s a downside.
Rallies built on borrowed capital instead of spot accumulation tend to be unstable. If the price stumbles, it could cause a chain reaction of liquidations, dragging prices down in a flash.
Maartunn explained:
“It might look impressive for a little while, but it’s incredibly unstable and just waiting for a reason to fall over.”
4th attempt to break Bitcoin ATH, but this time with perp whales.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 3, 2025
This mix of strong buying pressure and high leverage means BTC’s current move is both promising and risky. If momentum holds, the market could soon witness a clean break past the $120,000 mark and into price discovery mode.
But if buyers get exhausted, the sharp downside could follow just as fast. For now, whales are betting big that the Bitcoin All-Time High is just a breath away.
Bitcoin Taker Buy Sell Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant – Techtokens
Can ETF Demand Alone Fuel a Sustained Bitcoin All-Time High?
While ETF inflows are gaining momentum, the question remains, can they sustain a lasting rally to a new Bitcoin All-Time High?
The answer depends on how much institutional interest can be maintained and whether retail investors join in. In 2025, Bitcoin ETFs saw $23 billion in net inflows, a record number that speaks volumes about rising trust in the asset class.
Standard Chartered expects this number to rise to $43 billion by year-end, potentially acting as the key fuel source for Bitcoin’s climb toward $135K or even the $200K mark Kendrick predicts.
Some analysts point to related asset classes and platforms like Ondo Global Markets which are benefiting from growing crypto adoption across institutions, especially in yield-bearing strategies.
However, even with strong demand, a sustainable Bitcoin All-Time High needs more than ETF flows. Healthy spot accumulation and organic market growth are essential.
Crypto investors have already seen how hype can drive inflated gains followed by steep corrections, as with JUP’s 78% drop earlier this year. Sustainable highs are only possible with real use cases and long-term conviction.
Still, optimism remains. Historical trends in October and November often support Bitcoin’s bullish runs. And projects that focus on utility, despite losing dominance like Hyperliquid’s market share drop, show there’s room for long-term growth even after setbacks.
If ETF momentum continues, paired with macro conditions like the US shutdown and increased fiscal stress, Bitcoin could soon breach its previous record and enter a new phase of price discovery.
For now, all eyes are on the charts, and on the whales leading the charge toward the next Bitcoin All-Time High.
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